Effect of the variability of consolidation parameters for clay improved by wick drains using Monte Carlo simulations

Kamal, Mohamed Ashraf; Rabie, Mohammed Hasanin; Mahmoud, Hussein

doi:10.21608/erj.2025.353983.1183

Effect of the variability of consolidation parameters for clay improved by wick drains using Monte Carlo simulations

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Department of civil engineering, Faculty of engineering matariya branch, Helwan university, Cairo, Egypt

² Professor of Geotechnical Engineering, Helwan University, Cairo, Egypt.

³ Lecturer of Geotechnical Engineering, Helwan University, Cairo, Egypt.

10.21608/erj.2025.353983.1183

Abstract

This paper explores the quantification of uncertainties in predicting the settlement of embankments constructed on soft soil deposits enhanced with preloading and prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs). Settlement values often vary significantly due to uncertainties, particularly those associated with overconsolidation, compressibility properties, and the stratification of clay layers. Accurately identifying these uncertainties poses a considerable challenge because of the typically limited and variable data available.
To address these uncertainties, reliability analysis provides a robust approach. Instead of relying on a single deterministic settlement value, reliability analysis estimates the probability distribution of consolidation settlement, offering a deeper insight into the outcomes. Stochastic processes, such as Monte Carlo simulations (MC), are commonly employed for this purpose. Monte Carlo simulations involve generating random variables within established models to simulate a range of possible results. This method effectively assesses the impact of uncertainty and risk on settlement predictions, enabling greater accuracy in the analysis.
In this study, settlement predictions were statistically computed based on results obtained from PLAXIS 2D finite element modeling. Additionally, the study examines various factors influencing the reliability analysis of clay consolidation settlement. These factors include the number of simulations performed, the level of uncertainty in soil consolidation parameters, and the stresses induced by structural loads.

Keywords